Amara's Law states that people often overestimate the short-term impact of a new technology while underestimating its long-term impact. This leads to a situation in which, in the early stages of an innovation, hype often arises that exaggerates the real possibilities. Over time, disillusionment sets in because some of the promises are not fulfilled. In the long term, however, many technologies develop a potential that was not fully recognised at the outset.

Origin

The principle is named after Roy Amara (1925-2007), a futurologist and co-founder of the Institute for the Future. Amara formulated this observation in the 1970s as a basic principle for dealing with forecasts of technological development.

Application in UX and UI design

For UX and UI designers, Amara's Law means that new technologies and trends often attract a great deal of attention, but their practical usability in the initial phases may still be limited. Rushing to implement a hyped feature can quickly lead to disappointment and high development costs if the solution does not immediately prove itself. In the long term, however, these technologies can become the standard and bring about far-reaching changes in user behaviour and in the design of digital products.

It is therefore advisable to apply an 'agile realism' to emerging trends in practice – not to let yourself be driven crazy, but to still keep a watchful eye on developments. Also, Amara's law is not a strict 'law' in the scientific sense, but rather a rule of thumb or heuristic.

One specific example would be the development of AI: as early as the 1990s, almost all the foundations of today's AIs were in place and the future development and possibilities of AI were predicted very promptly. However, hardly anything happened for about 30 years – the disappointments were very great. It was only with today's hardware and the almost infinite amounts of data on the internet that the breakthrough came, which in the long term is likely to have a significant impact on all our lives.

Impact on the User Experience

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Further information